Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 13.759125 15.716004 17.817054 20.236464 22.941227 25.867451 29.268358
2025-08-17 10.817305 13.473101 16.541006 20.329761 24.864472 30.098303 36.575605
2025-08-24 9.249024 12.184097 15.737603 20.324501 26.052765 32.931867 41.775538
2025-08-31 7.960534 11.037263 14.924202 20.144382 26.913701 35.331056 46.516139
2025-09-07 7.093145 10.281263 14.459502 20.264161 28.035078 37.984118 51.573217
2025-09-14 6.549177 9.878836 14.387886 20.842675 29.728953 41.398912 57.722355
2025-09-21 5.839565 9.159399 13.801040 20.641050 30.313803 43.328175 61.947103
2025-09-28 5.026289 8.201048 12.784565 19.736915 29.833075 43.744454 64.089739
2025-10-05 4.738926 7.992093 12.816147 20.310491 31.433964 47.062040 70.330770
2025-10-12 4.441677 7.735090 12.746709 20.713353 32.786843 50.065935 76.231714
2025-10-19 4.048539 7.286127 12.344420 20.574670 33.312347 51.882695 80.482460
2025-10-26 3.673938 6.830292 11.891216 20.315297 33.621725 53.371624 84.286062
2025-11-02 3.383801 6.495919 11.614710 20.326632 34.363153 55.560164 89.262382
2025-11-09 3.155107 6.246500 11.456710 20.513730 35.382425 58.204769 95.026872
2025-11-16 2.909708 5.941995 11.178868 20.475868 36.024480 60.276535 99.972331
2025-11-23 2.666451 5.617276 10.839288 20.305806 36.431038 61.982716 104.399553
2025-11-30 2.492568 5.405357 10.678006 20.422497 37.303082 64.440408 110.071549
2025-12-07 2.402812 5.346988 10.784526 21.006394 38.977979 68.236499 117.988726
2025-12-14 2.209337 5.064572 10.460478 20.802887 39.294248 69.831780 122.418306
2025-12-21 1.942318 4.605600 9.771675 19.892647 38.332101 69.273265 123.308376
2025-12-28 1.882403 4.573028 9.890143 20.470149 40.004190 73.151990 131.614001
2026-01-04 1.805679 4.497059 9.917765 20.875821 41.382709 76.578235 139.271292
2026-01-11 1.674267 4.288515 9.667720 20.736171 41.763717 78.310570 144.131170